Looking to the East

Fretted about the possibility of the US cutting of its billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan over the Osama bin Laden Pandora’s box, the country’s leaders are desperate to latch onto other options they have – backup plans, one might call them. Plus, they also have to deal with any other intimidating measures that the US might use against Pakistan with the ties between the two countries becoming increasingly marred by mistrust.
Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani rushed off to China to put the Pakistan-China friendship to test. The 60th anniversary of the two countries' diplomatic ties presented the perfect excuse. And as always, the Chinese were quick to oblige. Pledges were made to “infuse new dynamics into the Pakistan-China partnership by enhancing cooperation among entrepreneurs of the two countries”. The Chinese also promised to provide Pakistan with 50 JF-17 fighter jets. But most of all, China defended Pakistan’s role in the war on terror and told the US to respect Pakistan’s sovereignty, like a big brother coming to the aid of his younger sibling and warning the bully to back off.
SO Pakistan has managed to send across a message to the US that the world’s economic powerhouse is steadfastly behind it and the Americans need to realise that they are not holding all the cards.
As Mr Gilani China mission was somewhat of a success, President Asif Ali Zardari didn’t fare that bad in Russia. He was there to win the support of another powerful nation (the mysterious and controversial killing of five Chechens in Kharotabad got anything to do with that?).
During the president’s stay in Russia, both countries agreed to “promote trade, investment and pursue joint projects particularly in the fields of energy, infrastructure development, metal industry and agriculture”.
The president also invited Russia to “invest in regional and trans-regional projects and benefit from Pakistan’s strategic location and investment-friendly policies”.
Considering that the Pakistan-US relations appear to be falling apart and turning into a novel of betrayal and deception, the Pakistani leaders’ strategy to look elsewhere for support isn’t bad. For a country that is being suspected by the West as the epicentre of terrorism, looking to the East is certainly makes sense.

Exit Osama bin Laden, enter Hafiz Saeed?

Just as Pakistan is trying to rid itself of the spectre of Osama bin Laden and its authorities would like the world to believe that they had nothing to do with al Qaeda chief hiding in Abbottabad for years, perhaps the world’s new most wanted terrorist is already in the making – not in the caves of Afghanistan or the rugged terrain of Waziristan, but in the cultural centre of the country, Lahore.

One would expect someone like Ayman al Zawahiri or Mullah Omar to take over the mantle with bin Laden gone, but it’s Hafiz Saeed, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa leader, who literally promises much.

The Jamaat-ud-Dawa is actually the al Qaeda-linked terrorist outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba operating with its new name ever since it was ‘banned’ by the government in 2002.

Recently in Lahore, a gathering of more than 4,000 bearded fanatics, reeking of hate and consumed by rage, cursed the Americans for killing bin Laden and called the terrorist a martyr. There, Saeed, the man allegedly responsible for the November 2008 attacks in Mumbai, uttered the words that Osama's death is the beginning of America’s defeat.

Apart from Saeed’s followers, participating in the gathering were also activists of the country’s right-wing parties. In fact, the religio-political party Jamaat-e-Islami declared that Saeed is the leader of all religious parties of the country.

The Pakistan Army is reluctant to launch an operation against terrorists in North Waziristan and its spooks are quick to whisk away nationalists of Balochistan and Sindh, but here is a man declaring jihad against the US - a country giving us billions of dollars in aid from of its taxpayers’ money - and enjoying complete liberty of doing this in the open.

The Lashkar-e-Taiba was originally meant for the Kashmir jihad. But now it poses as much of a threat to the US as al Qaeda does. It has spread its tentacles not only across Pakistan but to other countries as well.

The powers that be in Pakistan, keeping in view what they believe are ‘strategic interests’ of the country, are unlikely to lay a hand on the terrorist organisation, which has been such a handy tool for them in the past and could still serve them in the days to come.

But is it really in Pakistan’s strategic interests to become increasingly isolated internationally and keep getting closer to being labelled a terrorist state? Perhaps for a mindset that is too anti-India to see anything else beyond, yes.

Setting the tone

Prior to his arrival in Pakistan, US Senator John Kerry made it clear that it won’t be him taking the stick from the Pakistani authorities over the Osama bin Laden debacle and in fact, he would be the one giving it to them instead (strictly in the idiomatic sense of course).
He expected the Pakistanis to make a fuss over the al Qaeda chief hunt in Abbottabad in which the Americans “violated” the “sovereignty” of the country so he went for their Achilles’ heel - aid. He knows where it hurts most and he sent across a reminder that beggars can’t be choosers.
Mr Kerry made it clear that Pakistan can expect a “profound” change in its already troubled relationship with the US if does not mend its ways and become an actual ally in the war on terror instead of continuing to play its duplicitous game.

Warning Islamabad that it might run the risk of losing some of the billions of dollars in aid after the discovery that bin Laden was living in the city of Abbottabad for so many years, he advised the Pakistani authorities to give a rest to the monkey business of finger-pointing.
Let’s face it. The US and Pakistan are stuck in a bad marriage where a divorce at this stage will hurt them both. They will have to continue sharing the same bed whether they like it or not. The US needs Pakistan for its campaign in Afghanistan and the latter needs the billions of dollars flowing in from the former. For the Americans, Pakistan is a shoe that hurts, but one it cannot do without… not for now at least. It needs it to go the distance. As for Pakistan, it can’t let go of the habit of biting the hand that feeds.
Since 2002, Pakistan has gobbled up more than $20 billion from the US. Where has all that money gone and what is the financial crisis all about if all those dollars came in is another issue.
With Mr Kerry setting the tone for his meetings in Islamabad, one can imagine who will be calling the shots. One can expect some official statements similar to ones that condemn drone attacks. But what is actually said and done is quite different.

A blown opportunity

The hopes of those anticipating that David would finally take on Goliath were dashed with the civilian government caving in to the supremacy of the men in khakis. The high expectations fizzled out with a whimper and it turned out to be nothing more than a pathetic, gutless show.
In the aftermath of Osama bin Laden’s death, the civilian government, which has never been in the driving seat, finally had the opportunity to set things straight and exert its control over the army and its intelligence apparatus.
But for gains that are petty if the larger picture is taken into consideration, the government went on to support to the military and its spy agencies up over the bin Laden debacle.

In a marathon joint session of the National Assembly and the Senate meant to put for forward tough questions to the army and intelligence heads about that singular event responsible for bringing so much embarrassment to the country, the parliament unanimously approved a resolution condemning the US’ bin Laden mission as a “violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty”. The resolution expressed “deep distress” over “the campaign to malign Pakistan”, without appreciating its “immense sacrifices in combating terror”. However, the parliamentarians also demanded an independent probe into the late al Qaeda chief’s episode.
During the session, Inter-Services Intelligence Director General Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha admitted that there was an intelligence failure and said that he was prepared for full accountability.
However, our frail civilian set-up is nowhere prepared to take the bull by the horns. To sum it up, another opportunity has gone to waste no thanks to the self-centred bunch of weaklings that call themselves our leaders.
In addition to all this, its is interesting to note what Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz chief, Nawaz Sharif has been up to recently.
He had earlier demanded an independent investigation into bin Laden's killing, and is now calling for the army and intelligence agencies’ budget to be presented in the assembly.
He said that intelligence agencies’ should not be involved in making foreign policy and neither should they make alliances and divisions among political parties. He is right, but nevertheless, his criticism is laced with his own motives as he is aware of what the ‘spooks’ have been up to weaken his position in Punjab.

The real culprits

As expected Osama bin Laden has struck back… or more correctly, his disciples, who he spawned from his cauldron of hate, have made their first major move in their efforts to avenge the death of their leader.

At least 80 people were killed and 140 injured in two suicide attacks on a paramilitary police training centre in the Shabqadar tehsil of Charsadda.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakstan has claimed responsibility for the attack, which is another addition to the long list of sacrifices that Pakistan has had to make in the war on terror.
But the question is that are the Taliban the only ones responsible for these heinous crimes. These fanatics with their distorted beliefs were brainwashed into doing this. This is what they are supposed to do – soldiers of hate only doing the job they were trained for. The real villains are the people who created them and are continuing to abet them. Despite the fact that the Taliban have killed thousands of Pakistanis, these people, who are convinced that they are more “patriotic” than the rest of us and are the final line of defence for the country, still have a soft spot for these cold-blooded murderers and continue to protect and support them.
They are the ones who should be held responsible for the death of so many innocents. Their everlasting obsession with the “Indian threat” has turned them into a threat for Pakistan that is much greater than what India poses. Their anti-Indian sentiments have ignited the flames that now engulf Pakistan itself.  Perhaps, they also believe that the presence of the Taliban and al Qaeda operatives in Pakistan would ensure that the dollars keep flowing into the country so that the defences against India can be propped up. This doctrine has put us on the path of self-destruction and we need to mend our ways immediately.

Intolerable utterances

We are fed up with intolerable utterances. It wasn’t a rosy picture before, but after al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden’s death, it has become worse. In fact, it has become chaotic. The latest of such has come from the prime minister. Speaking to the parliament, he rejected allegations that government authorities were either hiding the al Qaeda chief or simply too incompetent to locate him and said that he has ordered a joint investigation into how bin Laden was able to live undetected in Abbottabad for such a long time. Army and civilian investigation officers will be used for this probe. Even more hurtful to the ears was Opposition Leader in the National Assembly Chaudhry Nisar’s response that the prime minister has failed to satisfy the nation and he is to blame for the failure of the intelligence agencies.
Does the probe into how bin Laden was hiding in Pakistan for so long stand any chance of success if we are to think that the our intelligence agencies, which we have come to believe have knowledge of almost everything under the sky in the country, were so incapable that they couldn’t locate him for years even though he lived right under their nose.
The investigation is nothing but a move to satisfy the US, which, by the way, has given a clean chit to the Pakistani government just a day earlier. The US national security adviser said that the Obama administration has seen no evidence that Pakistan’s leadership knew bin Laden was living in that country before his killing last week. However, the US president called upon the Pakistani government to probe the “support network” for the al Qaeda leader in the country.
So it can be imagined where the probe would be headed. As for Mr Nisar’s criticism just for the sake of criticism, it makes no sense to begin with. Why should the prime minister be blamed for the intelligence agencies’ failure? If Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz chief Nawaz Sharif can be kept in dark before the Kargil mess was started, why is it different in Mr Gilani’s case. All this nonsensical noise is maddening, but the masses still have to put up with it.

The errors of their ways

With the good riddance of Osama bin Laden, The Guardian has published the world’s most wanted list as it stand now and guess who makes it to the second slot in that ranking – none other than Dawood Ibrahim, the head of the Mumbai-based, 5,000-member organised crime syndicate D-Company, which has engaged in everything from narcotics and counterfeits to weapon smuggling and contract killing.

He is currently on the wanted list of Interpol for organised crime and counterfeiting. He was ranked fourth on the Forbes' World's Top 10 most dreaded criminals list of 2008.

After the 1993 Mumbai bombings that killed 257 people and wounded 713 - allegedly organised and financed by Ibrahim - he became India's most wanted man.

The US, maintaining that Ibrahim had close links with bin Laden, declared him a “global terrorist” in 2003 and pursued the matter before the United Nations in an attempt to freeze his assets around the world and crack down on his operations. The US government claims that the kingpin of the criminal world shares smuggling routes with al Qaeda and has collaborated with both al-Qaeda and its affiliate, Lashkar-e-Taiba, which allegedly pulled off the November 2008 Mumbai attacks, possibly with Ibrahim's help.

Unfortunately, Pakistan again comes into the limelight when Ibrahim’s issue comes up.

There have been numerous claims that he was, or probably still is, is a ‘guest’ in Pakistan just like bin Laden, protected by appearance-altering plastic surgery and friends in Pakistani intelligence community.

Urban legends in Karachi are that he lives somewhere in the DHA area of the city and many claim to have seen the underworld don.

The fact that Pakistani cricket legend Javed Miandad’s son married Ibrahim’s daughter further fuels suspicions.

Now if these rumours are true, it is yet another example of our intelligence agencies’ never-ending list of blunders. What objectives can they achieve by treading this path of self-destruction, it is anybody’s guess. Perhaps it all comes down to their eternal hatred for India. But in the process, what they are really doing is weakening their own country and tainting its image in the eyes of the world. We can only hope that our spy agencies can see the errors of their ways before it is too late.

Pak-India rivalry

The response that Pakistan’s Foreign Office could come up with to the US forces’ operation in Abbottabad was a very carefully selected one and even that was not meant for the Americans, but was actually an indirect message for another country.

Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir warned that it will be catastrophic if any other country even imagines it can follow the example of the United States. He said that if any country ever acted on the assumption that it had a right to unilateralism of any sort, it would be construed as a miscalculation that could result in terrible catastrophe. There are no doubts that this warning was meant for India, which would also like to target some individuals in Pakistan – whom it believes are responsible for terrorist attacks on the Indian soil.

The message to the Americans from the GHQ was more potent, but again, it was also rather subdued than the fierce tone that could have been used considering that the country’s sovereignty had been breached.

Chairing a Corps Commanders’ Conference, Chief of the Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani hinted that military and intelligence cooperation with the US might be reviewed if an Abbottabad-type action that violates the sovereignty of Pakistan takes place again.

The military leadership also kept its focus on India, as the participants of the meeting took serious note of the assertions made by the Indian military about conducting similar operations and made it made clear that “any misadventures would be responded to very strongly”.

Considering the tight spot that Pakistan is in after the discovery that Osama bin Laden was hiding, not in the caves of Afghanistan or the rigid terrain of Pakistan’s tribal belt, but the garrison city of Abbottabad, the sovereignty issue does not really come into contention as far as the US’ operation is concerned, apart from the obligatory reaction to the incident. But what matters more to Pakistan is that India should not be having ideas of acting in a similar manner. Would India embarking on a mission similar to that of the US be a bigger wrong than what the Americans did? No. Any country violating Pakistan’s sovereignty should be dealt with in the same manner, but it is a different argument that individuals involved in terrorist activities should not be finding refuge in Pakistan in the first place. Pakistan’s obsession with India knows no bounds. It needs to set its priorities straight. There are bigger problems than the old Pak-India rivalry.

An exit from the mess

As expected, Pakistani authorities are now up against the wrath of the global community for - what the latter believes - either hiding the recently slain al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden on their soil for years or being too inept to figure out that the world’s most wanted man was under living under their nose all along.

An anti-Pakistan mood prevails in the US Congress with many American lawmakers believing that the operation in Abbottabad has exposed the treachery of the Pakistani government.

Further complicating the matter is CIA chief Leon Panetta’s statement that Pakistan was not included in the mission to kill bin Laden as US officials feared it could have jeopardised the operation by alerting the targets.

What puzzles the US lawmakers is the fact that the al Qaeda chief was living in a complex close to a major military academy in the city of Abbottabad - where the armed forces have a large share in the property.

There are questions over whether Americans should continue military and economic assistance to a nation, which might be abetting al Qaeda.

Pakistan, caught in the middle of all sorts of crises one can think of due to its own self-destructive policies, is in dire need of US assistance and is denying that it had any information about bin Laden’s whereabouts.

But to make matters worse for itself, it is allowing organisations including Jamaatud Dawa to openly mourn the death of the man, who was responsible for the deaths of so many people - more Muslims than the followers of any other religion perhaps. Jamaatud Dawa is supposed to be a banned outfit, but every now and then, it stages rallies in major cities including Karachi and Lahore, a proof that it enjoys the authorities’ free hand. Newspapers all around the world and websites carrying images of Jamaatud Dawa members shedding tears for bin Laden at a funeral in absentia in Karachi surely won’t help matters for Pakistan.

One ray of light for the country is that the Obama administration hasn’t used harsh words for it yet. In fact, it is saying that Pakistani cooperation is essential for the war on terror in the coming days. Perhaps that might provide Pakistan with an exit from the mess it is currently stuck in, but at the same time, it can expect a much greater amount of “do more” pressure headed its way.

Moral victory for US but Pakistan has to prepare for backlash

Osama bin Laden is dead and buried… well dumped into the sea that is (It is interesting to see the a flood of tweets all likening this to the way the remains of Megatron, the villainous leader of the Decepticons in the blockbuster movie Transformers, were thrown into the sea, but the he later made a comeback in the movie’s sequel from his watery grave). However, it is not over yet… in fact far from it. Bin Laden was nothing more than a symbolic figure in the ranks of al Qaeda now. The organisation’s operations were being run by others. But nevertheless, it is a great moral victory and the death of perhaps the most hated man after Adolf Hitler would be a great blow to terrorists. But even as the US can celebrate the sweet taste of revenge for what the bin Laden did on September 11, 2001; the Pakistanis would have to prepare for a very terrible backlash from al Qaeda operatives and the Taliban.
After the news about bin Laden’s broke out, a bomb blast near a mosque in Charsadda killed a woman and three children and wounded five others. This incident might not be related to the news about bin Laden’s death, but the possibility cannot be counted out.
In an audio message issued to the Pakistani media from an undisclosed location, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has said that it would avenge the killing of the al Qaeda chief. The most significant part of the message was that Pakistan is now the Taliban’s first target and the US the second. The death of the world’s most wanted man would dramatically alter the current scenario of policies and strategies and Pakistan would have to make changes accordingly.